Zune: A Theory

Zune
It seems everyone is on the bandwagon to rag about Microsoft’s new Zune player. (For those of you who haven’t heard of it: (a) I’m not too surprised; and (b) think “iPod competitor.”)
I’ve been thinking about this and I’ve come up with a theory. Microsoft is not out to succeed in the space that Apple clearly owns with the iPod: Microsoft is in it to own the content and the protection of that content.
Bill Gates is not stupid. I’m sure he knows that going head-to-head with one of the most successful consumer electronics devices in history is a huge task. Why would he think that Microsoft could succeed where Creative and marketplace juggernaut Sony have pretty much failed? Yes, there’s some iPod backlash out there from people who have been burned by the iPod’s short battery life and some models’ tendency to fail, but that’s certainly not enough to keep a whole new player and supporting (God forgive me for using this term) ecosystem afloat.
Much has been said about how Microsoft is paying Universal Music $1 for every Zune sold. I doubt they’re doing this out of the goodness of their heart. Put this together with the fact that the Zune environment is heavily protected with a new DRM that’s not even compatible with the existing Microsoft Media Player and the fact that the much-touted “sharing” feature restricts the number of times you can play a song you receive from a friend and you’ve got a brand-new model for how to buy music electronically. And I think that is what Microsoft is after.
Much has been written about Apple’s desire to keep per-song downloads at 99 cents each; so why wouldn’t Microsoft start at the content-provider end and work their way backwards to the hardware? And when it’s time for Universal to re-negotiate their deal with Apple, they can point to the Microsoft Zune deal as an example of a hardware company that wants to play ball with them.
If the Zune fails, Microsoft can write it off. If it succeeds, they can open up the platform so the Sonys and Creatives of the world will start making the hardware. Hmmm. Sound familiar?
Microsoft already owns lots of content: they own the Bettman Archive, and its Encarta product is the successor to the Funk and Wagnalls, Collier, and New Merit Scholar encyclopedias. Getting cozy with the music industry is a logical next step.
If Microsoft owns the content, they’ll become a much more formidable opponent, even with an inferior hardware and operating platform. (Indulge me again:) Hmmm. Sound familiar?
So the next time you hear Leo LaPorte and his TWiT buddies beefing about how lousy the Zune is, keep in mind that there may be something bigger in the works.

jtl